Why Middlesbrough’s struggles in-front of goal could see them relegated this season?

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Saturday’s 2-0 defeat to Stoke City saw Middlesborough fall into the relegation zone for the first time this season. This latest loss forcing Aitor Karanka to accept his side are embroiled in a relegation battle as he spoke to Sky Sports after the game.

Having now gone 10 games without a league win and netting only 3 times in that run, questions have been asked about Karanka’s future, which he insists is secure at the Riverside.

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From a defensive aspect, it is difficult to criticise the manager. Continuing from an impressive Championship campaign which saw Boro concede only 31 times in 46 games, only three Premier League sides have conceded less than the Teeside club.

The much deeper concern for Karanka is how to improve on a dreadful scoring record. Twenty-Seven games into the season, Boro have scored just 19 times, averaging 0.7 per game (GPG).

With the problem clearly being an offensive one, it was no surprise to see two strikers brought in during the January transfer window. Yet, the combined £15 million for Patrick Bamford and Rudy Gestede could quickly seem like money wasted, with the side’s goalscoring only getting worse.

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Bamford’s recent clubs have been those of similar stature to Boro, but he seemingly wasn’t deemed good enough for any of them. At Crystal Palace, Norwich and most recently Burnley, the 23-year-old was granted occasional substitute appearances, often finding himself left completely from matchday squads.

Gestede meanwhile, the cheaper of the two, scored only five times in 32 league games for Aston Villa last term. Villa were often abject and finished 20th, but they had a similar GPG to Boro and Rudy only offered a goal every 331 minutes – almost double what he has played for his new club so far.

The league’s lowest scorers have only a single goal from their last five games, an average of 0.2 per match, since bringing in new recruits. Signing players in January is always a risk, but it is vital they are given a chance to quickly gel with a new side.

However, it is fair to question Karanka as he persists with the same formation, even dropping top scorer Alvaro Negredo on Saturday to accommodate Gestede as the sole striker.

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Negredo has provided his club with most goals (6) and assists (4). Although these numbers aren’t particularly impressive, the ‘Beast’s’ underlying stats show that more credit is due. The Spaniard’s six goals come from just 42 shots, a conversion of 14.3%. Put into context, the much lauded, ‘signing of the season’, Zlatan Ibrahimovic has a conversion of 13.8%. Zlatan may have been a free signing but Negredo, who is only on loan, will undoubtedly be costing Middlesbrough less in wages.

The difference between the two players’ goal tallies, and that of their respective sides’, is in the number of chances they create. Boro’s defensive shape and attitude are detrimental to their goalscoring, something easily highlighted when assessing Saturday’s performance.

Against Stoke, only one of the 18 most frequent passing combinations involved a member of Boro’s front three. This was goalkeeper Victor Valdes kicking directly to Gestede. Stoke’s most used pass was also ‘keeper to the striker, but The Potters frequently involved Joe Allen, Marko Arnautovic and Ramadan Sobhi. All three interlinked with each other, Peter Crouch and the two holding midfielders.

Karanka needs to take a risk soon. Having fallen into the bottom three, his side can’t depend on draws – of which they have the league’s joint highest – to maintain top-flight status. Two of their next three league games are crucial trips to Swansea City and Hull City. Given the club’s difficult run in (Manchester City, Chelsea, Southampton and Liverpool) these two games are key.

Three points behind Crystal Palace in 17th, Middlesbrough will have to score more goals against these similar, struggling sides to survive. Unfortunately for the fans on Teeside, an unfit Patrick Bamford – left out of the last three squads – and a lacklustre Rudy Gestede, are unlikely to be the answer.

Changing formation at this stage of the season is no doubt a gamble but Karanka must find a way for his side to score; even if that means squeezing two strikers into the same team. Negredo is not to blame for the struggles and dropping him is madness. Given proper support, the ‘Beast’ can help secure Middlesbrough’s Premier League future. Time to provide it is quickly running out.

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