Why have Colchester always looked like going down?

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It’s a glorious sunny day on Saturday 6th April 2007. Southend United’s Roots Hall is packed to the rafters, and over 1,000 Colchester fans have filled up the away end. One year before, the two sides had been fighting for the League One title, which ended up with the Shrimpers clinching the top spot on the final day. The Ewes fans joined into chorus in injury time, after a Jamie Cureton had put them 3-0 up, propelling the Ewes into play-off contention and killing off a little more of Southend’s remaining survival hopes. “What’s that coming over the hill? It’s relegation, it’s relegation!” they sang.

Fast forward 9 years, the scene is again Roots Hall. The scoreline is again 3-0. That song is being sung again. But this time, it’s the other three sides of the ground singing the chant, and the half empty away end which becomes gradually more deserted as Colchester fans face an almost certain relegation from League 1.

In the 8 seasons that have passed between the two games, Colchester have finished in the top half of the league only three times. In 2008 they were relegated from the Championship, winning only 7 out of 46 games. They then trod water, midtable without really threatening for promotion in League 1. It seemed the club had found its level while they made big changes off the field.

A new training ground and a new stadium were built, the dilapidated Layer Road waved goodbye and the impressive Weston Homes Community Stadium replaced it. Steps in the right direction were being made, yet Colchester began to struggle more than ever. Then owner Robbie Cowling made a decision. He decided to cut back his funding of the club, and what he did fund would be mostly provided to the youth academy of the club. He saw the benefit of producing young players through the ranks cheaply and selling them for big money.

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They’ve played a risky game, whilst it’s true that they’ve had some success, and produced some good players and developed others, including Freddie Sears whose career was in a downward spiral before he became a star in north Essex and was snapped up by Ipswich, they’ve been playing with fire.

Aidy Bothroyd left in 2010 and was replaced by John Ward, an internal appointment seen by some as a money saving exercise. Ward more or less maintained their mid-table mediocrity, but a slow start to the 2012-13 season saw them go nine games without a win and Ward was sacked. Joe Dunne was his replacement, another internal appointment, although this time with even less experience, although he was a club favourite. Dunne saved them, but only just as the club struggled to put up a fight but eventually secured survival on the final day thanks to Scunthorpe’s failure to salvage anything.

The following season was an improvement, though only just, with Dunne’s young outfit surviving by six points this time around and finishing in a more respectable 16th place. That wasn’t to mean that they didn’t struggle, but survival was secured to fight another day. Dunne eventually suffered the same fate as Ward, another slow start saw him sacked and again replaced internally by Tony Humes. Relegation seemed almost definite, but Humes and his side found inspiring form in the final few weeks, and defeated Preston North End on the final day of the 2014-15 season to secure safety for another year, denying Preston their automatic promotion hopes in the process.

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Ewes fans were buoyed, thinking that they had yet again managed to grasp survival from the jaws of defeat. Maybe this youth policy would work out after all? Nobody had expected such a young and inexperienced groups to perform such a miraculous recovery.

What most didn’t anticipate was one of the most depressing seasons in the clubs history. A day after gaining their first win in four and a half months at the time of writing, neither Humes nor recently appointed Kevin Keen have put up much of a fight. A decent cup run provided a mild distraction, though in truth the Ewes faced only non-league opposition before facing a Charlton side in freefall and were then knocked out by Spurs.

The gap between Colchester and safety is increasing with every game, and there’s little reason to be hopeful. They’ve so far conceded nearly 80 goals, averaging well over two goals conceded per game. They’ve scored 40 goals, only two less than leaders Burton, but that’s little consolation when they are almost entirely consolation goals. What’s perhaps most damaging is in fact the rate at which they have thrown away leads. Beating Fleetwood at home was a big result in January, until they surrendered to a late equaliser. A trip to Bury didn’t create much in terms of expectation, until they were 2-0 up within half an hour… Only to then concede five.

In Alex Gilbey, George Moncur and co., they certainly have a promising squad full of potential, but they lack the experienced quality and any form of player at their peak. George Elokobi and Chris Porter, two of the side’s supposed experienced leaders, have been injury ridden and disappointing when fit.

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It is hard to see them standing any chance of survival this season, despite the shrewd appointment of a well respected coach in Kevin Keen, and he is still struggling to find any kind of result as he searches for his first league win. Preparations for a return to League 2 may soon be underway, but Ewes fans will be concerned about the long term future. With an expensive new ground and facilities, their trajectory on the field has been all downhill, and if forced to sell their promising youngsters in the summer then it will leave question marks over the way forward. Will Keen and Cowling stick with the policy, bringing in even younger and more inexperienced players to fill the gaps left by the current emerging stars, or will they look to more experienced League 2 quality professionals.

That answer remains to be seen, but avoiding another relegation struggle next season could well be the biggest concern, not promotion at the first time of asking. The irony? They could do with taking a leaf out of rival Southend’s book when it comes to consolidation and promotion after a disastrous League 1 relegation.

Featured Image – All Rights reserved by Michael Ripley.