Why do Nottingham Forest’s strikers need to step up?

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Scoring goals is the most fundamental part of the game. To that end, keeping it tight at the back is equally important. This may sound somewhat obvious, but it’s always good to reiterate the rudiments of the game. If you can score and deny the opposition a chance to reciprocate, you should be alright. The common discord among many fans of any “struggling” team is usually the need to sort out the defence – the desire to build a successful team from the back; to create a foundation of defensive solidity before moving forward to address the primary need of any team – putting the ball in the back of the net. Herein lies the very crux of Nottingham Forest’s current season.

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Nottingham Forest have lost 12 games so far this season and of those, a paltry three performances can be described as poor – Bristol City away, Sheffield Wednesday away and Bristol City at home. Some may point to the Huddersfield game at home, but I would counter it was the level of the opposition’s performance that denied them the chance to play their own game, rather than a poor performance from the team. This leaves (as of writing this article) a further 22 games, ten of which have been won. Of the 34 games played so far, three have been won by at least a two goal margin and a couple have been lost by a couple of strikes at the wrong end. The remaining 17 games have either been won or lost by a single goal. There have only been three matches where a team has scored thrice in the ninety minutes- all by Nottingham Forest – and no draw with a scoreline greater than 1-1. While Nottingham Forest (currently) lie 15th in the Championship, they have conceded only 31 goals, which makes them the 5th best defensive team in the table.

Here however, lies the rub. They have scored 32 goals so far this season, which has been bettered by 19 of the 23 other teams in the Championship, including two of the bottom three, with the other (Charlton) having scored the same number to date. With an average goals scored per game of 0.94, it could be fair to say Nottingham Forest may well go on to score 11 goals in the remaining 12 games. As such, a total of 43 goals scored in the season is only one better than the 2004/05 season when they were relegated from the Championship. This only tells half the story, as 66 goals were conceded that season, but with only 31 goals conceded so far in their current campaign there is a massive difference in the defensive abilities of the two teams. It’s been 17 years since Nottingham Forest graced the top flight and in those intervening years they have conceded 50 goals or less on only five occasions; they have scored 50 goals or less only five times too.

As a Forest fan, it is well known amongst our own that finding a quality goalscorer is tantamount to discovering the Holy Grail. While this may be true for a lot of other clubs, it seems that Forest in particular have a knack of turning a good goal-scorer into an average one, and an average goal-scorer into a man wandering the desert hoping to find that one remaining oasis. The numbers don’t really make happy reading. In the 16 full seasons played out since their relegation from the Premier League, a Forest striker has managed to score 10 or more goals in 10 of those seasons. Of those 10 occurrences, two players managed to score 20 or more goals – and both achieved it in the same season. It was 2002/03 and David Johnson (a £3.5m signing from Ipswich) scored 25 goals, while home-grown talent Marlon Harewood bagged 20. Forest scored a heady 82 goals that season, finished 6th in the table and were knocked out of the play-offs by Sheffield Utd.

If we delve a little deeper into the history books, we find that since Duncan McKenzie scored 26 league goals for Nottingham Forest in the 1973/74 season, the feat of scoring 20 or more league goals in a solitary campaign has been repeated five times in the intervening 42 years. The memory of a rampaging Stan Collymore (22 goals in the 1994/95 season) or the prolific partnership of van Hooijdonk and Campbell quickens the heart and steals a fan’s thoughts. While the adage “you won’t win anything unless you have a 20-goal-a-season-man” may ring loud and true with some of these fans, it must be remembered that in the 18 full seasons Brian Clough was in charge (1975/76 to 1998/99), there wasn’t a single player who scored 20 or more leagues goals in a season, yet Brian Clough is Nottingham Forest’s most successful manager.

So, of those five occurrences, the nirvana of finding a strike partnership who both find scoring something of a cake-walk has happen twice. The aforementioned van Hooijdonk (29 goals) and Campbell (23 goals) in the 1997/98 season and the equally prolific duo of David Johnson (25 goals) and Marlon Harewood (20 goals) in the 2002/03 season as mentioned above. Which means, of course, this singular feat has only been achieved in three separate seasons over that 42 year period. In addition, there have been nine seasons since Forest’s relegation from the Premier League where a striker or strikers have scored 10 or more goals, the most recent of which was last season when Britt Assombalonga netted 15 times prior to having his season cut short with a shocking knee injury that has kept him out of action since 11th February 2015.

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Nelson Oliveira, Dexter Blackstock, Chris O’Grady, Jamie Ward and Tyler Walker have scored 14 goals between them in the current season, with Oliveira bagging eight of them. While chances are being created, the inability to convert them to cold, hard goals has stunted Forest’s progress. While a proven goalscorer – with 64 goals in 134 career appearances – sits on the sidelines hoping to recover from an injury sustained 13 months ago, the fact remains: Forest appear to be missing some quality in front of goal. When considering the historic facts, Forest have never really had or been able to keep hold of a free-scoring striker. With Stuart Pearce breaking Forest’s own transfer record to bring Assombalonga to The City Ground, it appeared in the subsequent games we may have bagged ourselves just that, but injury robbed us the chance of seeing a player in the Garibaldi achieving a feat no other striker has accomplished in 12 years.

This current situation brings to bear additional pressure. The clamour to see Assombalonga take to the pitch inevitably heaps a whole host of expectation on someone who will require a number of games to achieve match fitness, let alone a sharpness in front of goal to convert any chances coming his way. Having sustained a quite horrific injury – dislocating his knee which required surgery – there is also the concern as to his complete recovery and ability to play to the level he had achieved previously. We all hope this is the case, as the profligate nature of Forest’s strikers thus far continue to have an impact on the season. When referring to Squawka, the accumulative stats for the season so far tell us Forest have created 367 chances and have taken 484 shots – both the third highest in the division – so the ability to get the ball in the right areas for a chance of scoring is tempered by the lack of a proven finisher.

This all may sound a bit doom and gloom, but let us remember Forest’s defensive record – as mentioned earlier – is keeping them in the game. They may be struggling to score, but with a total of 1,711 defensive actions – be that blocks, clearances or interceptions – Forest sit top of that particular form table, proof positive that the foundations are in place to build a (hopefully) successful team. Forest are difficult to break down, have shown to be able to create a good number of chances – 10.79 per game on average – but just lack that final piece of the puzzle. That pressure will be building on Assombalonga to deliver upon his return. Let’s hope he fully recovers from his long-term injury and proves to the fans just how good an acquisition he looked to be last season.

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