The coach is always right – at least until they’re proven wrong!

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Euro 2016 is in full swing and with the group stages over we’ve enjoyed some juicy ties in the Round of 16. The decisions coaches make with regard to team selection, substitutions and tactics will be dissected and analysed to the Nth degree. These decisions will be mulled over and debated in TV studios, print media, workplaces and pubs all over Europe. I, for one, lamented Roy Hodgson’s decision making in light of the late goal by Russia that deprived England of two points in their opening match. The media and public alike were quick to criticise the substitutions made. I should know better, but we’ll come back to that.

Fast forward five days and the armchair pundits (not to mention media sages) hailed Roy Hodgson for his decision making in the Wales game as Kane and Sterling were replaced by Sturridge and Vardy at half time. When they both scored to complete a 2-1 victory he was lauded as a genius. However, four days later many also complained about the decision to make wholesale changes to the team that lined up for the Slovakia game despite two of those changes including the very same Sturridge and Vardy. When it comes to making the right decision, Roy Hodgson literally cannot win.

However, this may be because people work on the assumption that there is an absolute right and wrong decision to make at each turn. That, for instance, the introduction of Vardy against Wales was in line with all of the evidence while dropping Rooney for the Slovakia match flew in the face of the evidence. Having spent a number of years researching how sports coaches make decisions, I believe there are no such certainties. Instead of thinking of absolute right and wrong we need to think about the different types of decisions coaches have to make and the circumstances under which they make these decisions.

I suggest we need to consider the amount of time that a coach has to deliberate in order to make these decisions. If we do that then there are generally three types of decisions that a coach might make. Deliberative decisions are made where time allows for deliberation. For example, Roy Hodgson making 6 changes to the starting line up for the Slovakia match.

Non-deliberative decisions, on the other hand, are made with very little time available. For example, someone is sent off and an instant decision about what to do in response to that is needed. Roy Hodgson hasn’t had to make such a decision yet and let’s hope, as an England fan, that remains the same. There are also many decisions that are made with some deliberation, but where there is a fairly immediate time pressure. This might describe most substitutions or tactical changes made in a match, such as the introduction of Jamie Vardy and Daniel Sturridge in the Wales match.

This approach to understanding decision making is based on research on practice where decisions are complex, time constrained, where the stakes may be high, where the goals are vague, where the landscape is constantly changing and not all of the information needed may be available. Even for a decision like team selection for the Slovakia match where there was time available, time is still limited (5 days), there are high stakes (team progress and Roy Hodgson’s job), the decisions are complex (performances, sport science data on players), the goals are vague (will a draw be enough?) the landscape is changing (other results) and not all information needed is available (opposition line up and tactics).

It becomes even more difficult during matches. There isn’t time to consider all options and we don’t know what the opposition will do in response. The truth is that in the real world setting of a game of football coaches have to take the first available option based on the immediate information available. In other words, elite coaches make a (very) educated ‘best-fit’ decision based on past experience and consideration of the evolving, current situation.

The success or failure of these decisions can only established after the fact. Or to put it another way, if Sturridge and Vardy hadn’t scored against Wales last week, or if Wilshire had knocked in a Henderson cross against Slovakia, we might have very different ideas about Hodgson’s decision making. We shouldn’t be too hard on coaches when their decisions don’t work out because, in the best academic sense, there are no right or wrong answers, just best available options.

David Pears, Senior Lecturer in Sports and Exercise Science, University of Bedfordshire

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