Is the Premier League ’40-point safety mark’ fact or fiction?

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Bob Dylan once said, ‘the times they are a-changin’. This was certainly not a direct reference to the evolution of technology and statistics in football, but the sentiment does seem rather apt.

Not only have we seen the introduction of vanishing spray and goal line technology, it seems only a matter of time before video referees are implemented at the top end of the beautiful game.

Couple this on-pitch advancement with the wealth of numerical tidbits about teams and players alike; some may argue the organic nature of football is becoming all too clinical.

Still, some things seem unmoved. Even with the tide of calculations and formulas the fabled 40-point mark remains sacred, in the Premier League.

It seems to provide safety in a competition rife with insecurity; it allows a platform to build on and the opportunity to pursue and persuade transfer targets.

Yet is it a fallacy? Statistics can provide the answer…

Let’s consider the last ten years of Premier League action. From the 06/07 season to the 15/16 season, we’ve seen it all. Unlikely Leicester the champions elect, the emergence of a Portuguese superstar and an enigmatic Uruguayan partial to a fleshy snack. There are innumerable examples of weird and wonderful happenings, which could fill thousands upon thousands of webpages.

However, in just one of these seasons has the 40-point mark been a necessity to ensure survival. In the 2010/11 season, Birmingham City saw their tally of 39 points land them in the red zone. Wolves, in 17^th place, seemed to take the 40-point mark quite literally in this instance.

In fact, on two separate occasions a paltry 35 points was required to maintain league status. Hull City and West Ham United the beneficiaries in this case.

On average 37.3 points will see you home and dry. Now the English footballing system does not deal with decimals so, in reality, managers could happily brag about achieving 38 points. The likelihood then being an away jaunt to Old Trafford the following year, rather than a trip to Portman Road.

So what can 40 points get you?

Well, it seems 40 points should generally place you in the dizzying heights of 15^th or 16^th. The table beneath illustrates the breakdown on average, of league placement and respective points for the past decade:

• 14^th place average in the previous ten years: 41.6
• 15^th place average in the previous ten years: 40.5
• 16^th place average in the previous ten years: 38.6
• 17^th place average in the previous ten years: 37.3
• 18^th place average in the previous ten years: 35.4
• 19^th place average in the previous ten years: 32.8
• 20^th place average in the previous ten years: 25

Now the 40-point mark is clearly used for convenience. It would seem somewhat nonsensical to alter the tally to a lesser one, only increasing a team’s chance of being caught out. 40 points is an appropriately rounded figure, which allows a common goal particularly for those expected to be deep in the mire come April/May.

There may well be some managers who could do with siting the 37.3 value, though. Whether or not the fans would be sympathetic to this remains to be seen.

What can we infer from this seasons table, then?

Well using these averages, it would be prudent to suggest anyone metaphorically north of Hull is safe. Crystal Palace have accrued 38 points and it would require some serious changes in fortune to see them relegated.

With Sunderland gone, and Middlesborough likely to follow, it promises to be quite the battle between Swansea and Hull. Will either of them make it to 37.3 points? Only time will tell.