How can Newcastle United replace Jonjo Shelvey?

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Newcastle’s run of relatively poor results in the absence of Jonjo Shelvey suggests that the team had become too dependent on him. The likelihood that he may well be suspended later on in the season (he’s clearly not the most sensible of footballers), the possibility that he might get injured, and (for some fans) the reasons for his current suspension mean that there’s a short – to medium – term need to move for a replacement/cover in this transfer window.

Shelvey’s Numbers

Unsurprisingly, Shelvey’s passing numbers are terrific. He creates 2.3 chances per 90 minutes and plays 8.6 accurate long passes per 90. On a side note, while playing for the Magpies in the Premier League, he used to create 1.3 chances per 90 and played 4.6 accurate long passes per 90. His production has, therefore, jumped up in the Championship, presumably because it’s a lower quality league. This is something to bear in mind when looking at some potential replacements (if we’re thinking about how well they will do in the Premier League).

In contrast, Shelvey’s defensive numbers aren’t great – he makes 2.2 tackles/interceptions per 90 (you probably want a deep-lying midfielder to make something like 4 or 5 per 90). It’s possible that he does lots of smart defensive work that stats can’t pick up (e.g., occupying space so that a dangerous pass is prevented), but I don’t think that’s true.

Potential replacements?

So, to replace (or provide cover for) Shelvey, we need a deep-lying creative passer. It would be great if they did some defensive work, but that would be something beyond what Shelvey provides. Based on their stat’s, here are two sensible options.

Conor Hourihane

Hourihane is 25 years old and plays centre midfield for Barnsley. He’s been flagged up by Ted Knutson as one of the best five midfielders in the Championship, was mentioned as a potential target in a recent piece about where Newcastle could/should strengthen this month, and his contract expires this summer.

Hourihane’s stats are very good. At the time of writing, he had made more goals (11) in the Championship than anyone else. He makes 2.5 chances per 90 and 4.1 accurate long passes per 90.

So, Hourihane produces slightly more chances than Shelvey, but fewer raking long passes per game (which is important, as these passes can help to build effective attacks). In terms of defensive work, however, Hourihane does much more than Shelvey. Hourihane has made 5.7 tackles/interceptions per 90 this season (remember that Shelvey made 2.2 per 90).

It’s possible that his defensive output might drop, should he move to a side that has more of the ball (Barnsley’s average possession – 48.8% – is lower than Newcastle’s – 53.3%), but this side of his game maybe makes up for the ways in which he looks to be a weaker player than Shelvey.

Viktor Claesson

Claesson is 25 years old and plays centre midfield for Elfsborg, who finished fifth in the Swedish top tier (the Allsvenskan) in 2016. Like Hourihane, Claesson’s numbers look promising.

Last year, he created 2.2 chances per 90 and played 5.4 accurate long passes per 90. Obviously, it’s hard to compare his performance in the Allsvenskan with Shelvey’s (and Houriahne’s) stats. But it seems likely that Claesson has a decent passing range and can create chances.

Also, like Hourihane, Claesson does some decent defensive work, making 5.4 tackles/interceptions per 90. Even his shot numbers are strong – he scored eight goals last year, taking 2.7 shots per 90, with just over half of those attempts being taken from inside the box (whereas 85-90% of the shots produced by Shelvey and Hourihane come from outside of the box).

Given these numbers, Claesson could be a more complete player than Houriahne (and Shelvey). That being said, it might just be that his numbers are inflated by a relatively weak league.

Who to Buy?

So, of these two options, who should Newcastle move for? In terms of price tags and wages, neither player should cost a fortune.

Given that Houriahne is already producing in the Championship, he seems like a less risky purchase. However, the fact that his contract expires in the summer is a bit of a double-edged sword. It means that he could be bought relatively cheaply (unless Barnsley are determined to hold onto him, in an attempt to make the play-offs and get promoted). But it also means that he is very likely to be able to move to a Premier League team in the summer, if he doesn’t move in this window.

He might, therefore, be reluctant to move to Newcastle this month, given that he should realise that he’s not guaranteed to get in starting XI, and given that we can’t – yet – guarantee him Premier League football in 2017/18. Instead, he could just bide his time and weigh up his options in the summer.

Claesson could, therefore, be a more realistic option. And, based on his stats, he could prove to be the better player in the long run.

That depends, though, on how well he transitions from the Allsvenskan to the Championship (and then, hopefully, the Premier League). Some players have done well after leaving the Allsvenskan (Lasse Vibe, Alfred Finbogassan), but moving for him would be a risk. Given Claesson’s numbers, and the fact that he should be a pretty cheap purchase, it might be a risk worth taking.

Featured Image: All rights reserved by Alex Hannam