How badly will Liverpool miss the injured Sadio Mane?

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Liverpool’s top scorer, Sadio Mane, limped off the pitch before the hour mark on Saturday, having given his side an early lead in the Merseyside derby. The extent of the injury has not yet been determined, but there are fears at the club that it is worse than expected, as reported by the Liverpool Echo, who explain that scans have been inconclusive due to persistent swelling around the Senegalese winger’s knee.

This complication almost certainly rules Mane out of the next two games, as the Reds face Bournemouth and Stoke City within four days of each other.

Jurgen Klopp has already experienced life without the 24-year-old this season, and it has not been good. When the winger departed for the African Cup of Nations, Liverpool played seven games and were winners only once, against League two Plymouth (at the second time of asking). In fact, of the eight matches Mane has missed since joining the club, his teammates have lost five.

While that alone is damning evidence that Klopp’s men will again struggle without him, looking at his stats and those of the other attackers, quickly explains why. Mane has been directly involved in 30% of Liverpool’s Premier league goals, assisting six on top of his own tally of 13. He also has a far superior conversion rate than the two Brazilians who complete the side’s impressive triumvirate.

Roberto Firmino, who usually plays in the centre of the three, has taken 82 shots so far with a return of nine goals (approx one in nine attempts). Philippe Coutinho has netted seven times from 72 efforts, leaving him slightly worse off at around one in 10. These rates are by no means awful but pale in comparison to the Senegalese, who is clinical every one in every four times he strikes.

The personnel available to replace Mane must be considered when assessing how big a loss he is, and in this category, Liverpool have two options: Belgian forward Divock Origi and England striker Daniel Sturridge. Both were used throughout January, but neither proved capable of replicating the efficiency, speed or work rate shown by their teammate.

If the side didn’t have other injury problems, with Adam Lallana and Jordan Henderson both out, it would be plausible that neither Origi or Sturridge would play, as Klopp chose instead to shuffle his midfield for the home loss to Swansea.

Lallana’s absence takes away this possibility, leaving a straight up choice between the two forwards. Sturridge has had limited game time so far, partly due to multiple injuries sustained this campaign, and only returned to training on Monday following a hip issue. When fit, the Englishman usually scores goals, but Liverpool have to play differently with him in the side as he isn’t well suited to Klopp’s intense counter-press system.

Origi is an interesting option, and, after scoring hist first goal for three months at the weekend, has expressed a desire to stake his place in the side:

“I feel very ready, I feel good and fit. I feel even better than last year so for me it is giving everything every minute I can get.”

The Belgian has a right to feel frustrated this season but appears to have remained positive. Despite injuries to both Sturridge and Danny Ings, he has had to settle for substitute appearances, regardless of being the only available natural striker.

When the opportunity has arrived, Origi has usually taken it. The 21-year-old has scored five goals from just 22 attempts (a similar rate to Mane) and has been directly involved in a goal every 97 minutes, bettering the injured 24-year-old’s 118 minutes. From this alone, the Belgian appears to be the obvious replacement, someone who is capable of making the top scorer’s absence less noticeable.

However, even though Origi is himself reasonably quick, and works hard for the team, he still has less of an impact on their style of play. Mane is seen as a threat and draws opposition players out of position like no other Liverpool player, and is key to any counter-attacking goals.

Furthermore, Origi has struggled to make in impact when called upon in big games, having failed to score against any of the top-six this season. That may seem harsh considering his limited minutes against those sides, but he has had chances and it is in those games where Liverpool would miss Mane most.

Fortunately for Liverpool, they face no side higher than eighth for the remainder of the campaign. Mane will be a significant loss, should his knee injury prove serious, but Origi has the desire and ability to lessen the blow. Arguably, being forced to play a slightly different way, against upcoming midtable sides, may give better results than in disappointing matches against some of those teams so far this season.

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