Here’s how David Sullivan could negotiate huge £1.5bn West Ham takeover

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West Ham United supporters have urged David Sullivan to sell the club after a number of high-profile missteps, but the process is unlikely to be simple.

Graham Potter was sacked just five games into the season and while Nuno Espirito Santo has since managed to steady the ship, West Ham remain mired in uncertainty.

Poor results and an alleged lack of ambition during the summer transfer window have seen matchgoers openly direct their frustration toward David Sullivan, the chairman and the largest shareholder.

West Ham’s supporters advisory board sent a letter of no confidence to the club’s board in late August, declaring that the “ageing uncompetitive squad, inadequate scouting infrastructure and a derided training facility” are “unacceptable”.

So, with anger rising in the stands, TBR Football has examined what a potential sale might look like.

Exclusive: West Ham valued at around £1.5billion

Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky bought a 27 per cent stake in West Ham for around £200million in November 2021, but has not pursued a full takeover despite being expected to do so.

Using that value as a yardstick, our football finance expert Adam Williams has revealed how much the club will likely be worth.

“David Sullivan claims he rejected a £650m offer for full control of the club from Red Bull back in 2016. A while later, Karren Brady said that they had turned down approaches at £850m,” Williams told TBR Football.

“And over the last few years, enterprise values of clubs as assessed by third parties like Forbes or Football Benchmark have gone up and up.

“By my calculations, elite clubs have a CAGR of about 10 per cent, according to these analyses. That stands for ‘compound annual growth rate’. Basically, clubs appreciate in value by 10 per cent every year on average.

“If that’s held true at West Ham, £650m in 2016 becomes around £1.5bn today. To me, that seems a little toppy, but I’d be very surprised if Sullivan entertained any bids for the club that didn’t value it at least £1bn.

“The Kretinsky deal in 2021 is a decent yardstick, but the caveat there is that it is for a minority stake and is a pretty passive investment. It’s hard to see what the mechanics of any full takeover of West Ham would be given that they don’t have a single majority shareholder.

“There will probably be some mechanism whereby other shareholders can be compelled to sell if certain conditions are met, but we’re not going to be privy to those.

“I also think we need to make a distinction between price and value, because barely any club owners are actually making any money on a day-to-day basis.

“You can keep selling to the next guy, but at the end of the chain, these clubs are going to have to become profitable for there to be any real ‘value’ there.”

Karren Brady on potential West Ham sale

Speaking on talkSPORT shortly after West Ham began the campaign with a 3-0 defeat against Sunderland, vice-chair Karren Brady confirmed that the majority of the club’s shareholders have no plans to sell up.

“Unfortunately, David Gold passed away and then (his daughter) Jacqueline passed away. The family are looking at what they should do with their shares, and they’re very careful about what they are going to do,” said Brady.

“I mean, we’re a London club, we have a 67,000 capacity stadium (once council safety certificate approval is granted), we would be very sought after.

“But no, I’m very lucky, I’ve got good shareholders who believe in the club, who love the game, who want to do the best that they can and are very much staying.”