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Expected goals metric shows Hugo Lloris saving shots he’d be expected to concede

(Photo by Visionhaus)

Tottenham Hotspur

Expected goals metric shows Hugo Lloris saving shots he’d be expected to concede

Lloris has made high-profile errors but has also pulled his side out of trouble at times.

Tottenham goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has had his fair share of criticism and has made some high-profile errors, including in the most recent World Cup final.

Sky Sports have run some statistics on his game and they have shown he is the active Premier League goalkeeper who has made the most mistakes leading to a goal since 2012/13, with 18.

They also showed he has made as many mistakes, nine, against the other sides in the big six, as he has against the rest of the division, in almost three times as many matches.

But they also ran an interesting measure on goalkeepers saving shots they’d be expected to concede and found that Lloris has conceded almost 33 less goals than he’d be expected to since 2012/13, based on the quality of shots he has faced.


For context, Ederson has actually conceded more than he would be expected to based on the shots he’s faced, and his reputation far outstrips Lloris’ at present.

(Photo by Visionhaus)

TBR’s View – Stats can’t capture nervousness Lloris sometimes causes

The stats put Lloris top of the tree in Premier League terms for saving shots he’d be expected to concede, but there are some things which cannot be measured by statistics.

Lloris’ propensity for mistakes, especially in the bigger matches, can spread nervousness to the crowd and players and it is difficult to quantify the impact of that via the numbers.

For an experienced international goalkeeper who is club captain, Lloris should offer more assurance throughout the match than he does.

He gets his side out of trouble at times but does not offer the calmness required at times, and the numbers bear out a frequency of errors in bigger matches which will never inspire full confidence from supporters at the match.

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