Data expert reveals shocking Viktor Gyokeres goal projection at Arsenal vs Sporting numbers

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Viktor Gyokeres has endured a hit-and-miss start at Arsenal since arriving in a £64 million move from Sporting CP this summer.

The Swedish international opened his Arsenal account with a brace in the 6-0 win over Leeds United, but barely had a chance as the Gunners lost 1-0 against Liverpool on Sunday.

William Saliba was forced off injured during the opening minutes of the clash, and despite the setback, Arsenal looked the more likely to open the scoring throughout the first half but were eventually thwarted by Dominik Szoboszlai’s 83rd-minute free kick.

Gyokeres arrived at the Emirates with huge expectations on his shoulders – the Gunners have been crying out for a focal point in attack for the past few years.

He established himself as one of the most prolific goal scorers in Europe at Sporting CP, and he will be expected to replicate that form upon his return to English football, although the data suggests otherwise.

Viktor Gyokeres will score fewer goals at Arsenal

Ian Graham, founder of sports advisory business Ludonautics and former director of research at Liverpool, told the Men in Blazers YouTube channel that Gyokeres is projected to score far fewer goals in the Premier League than he did in Portugal.

“So we can see how well Portuguese teams do against Premier League teams, but also, you know, Premier League teams play French teams, who play Portuguese teams, there’s a big network of results (in the Champions League) that basically gives us an exchange rate.

“So, as you’re at the bureau de change at the channel station in St. Pancras there, you can ask how many Portuguese euros your Premier League pound buys you, and it’s about a 35% discount. So, you know, if you just look at raw goals numbers, we guess that Gyokeres’ goals per ninety minutes is going to decrease by about 35%.

“In reality, it’s a bit more than that because Portugal’s dominated by those three big teams, and Gyokeres didn’t have to play against one of them because he was already at Sporting. So, the quality of opposition he played in Portugal was, you know, even worse than 35%.”

Roy Keane believes Gyokeres will score plenty of goals for Arsenal this season, and a return of two goals in three outings is impressive, albeit both goals came against the same opposition.

The 27-year-old bore the brunt of the criticism following the defeat at Anfield as he failed to register a single shot on goal against the Premier League champions, and after the final whistle, Gyokeres hit back at the critics.

Furthermore, Gyokeres struggled against Manchester United on the opening day, and that trend could very well continue at the Emirates based on Graham’s statistical feedback.

How many goals is Viktor Gyokeres projected to score for Arsenal?

Gyokeres scored an astonishing 54 goals in 52 appearances across all competitions in his final season at Sporting.

With Graham’s insight in mind, the estimated 35% decrease in his goal output will not concern Arsenal supporters at all.

A return of 35 goals across all competitions would be the most goals scored in a single season at the Emirates since Thierry Henry scored 39 goals in the 2003/04 campaign.

Although Graham suggested the decrease would be more than 35% due to the level of competition Gyokeres faced in Portugal, even a 50% decrease would still see Gyokeres score 27 goals, only bettered by Robin van Persie in the 2011/12 season.