Are experts correct that it is ‘now or never’ for Arsenal?

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Until such time that Arsenal win their 14th league title, scepticism regarding their chances of doing so is likely to abound. That is perfectly understandable of course – it has been almost 12 years since their last Premier League title and the intervening period has contained its share of false dawns. However, as Arsenal sit top of the league at the halfway stage this season, a new refrain can be heard in discussions of Arsenal’s prospects. This is the idea that they will ‘never get as good a chance’ to win the league again. Jamie Carragher even went as far on Sky Sports last night, as to suggest that they might not win the league for another 10 years should they fail to win it this season.

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It is fair to say that this season represents Arsenal’s best chance of winning the title for some time given Chelsea’s kamikaze start to the campaign, Manchester United’s ongoing ‘transition’ and Manchester City amounting to less than the sum of their parts once again. Should Arsenal replicate their 42 point return from the second half of last season, there is a good chance that they will be champions. However, the idea that they won’t get any other opportunities in the near future is a strange one and is very revealing about our footballing culture at the present time. A consensus exists that change, either in manager or players, will equal improvement.

From around 2009 until 2013, each season was going to be the year that Arsenal finally fell out of the top four. They had lost important players in the transfer market and failed to sign either anyone or adequate replacements. Other clubs had spent big money and/or had new managers at the helm; typically Tottenham Hotspur or Liverpool though at times Everton and Aston Villa. It never occurred.

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In the post-Ferguson freshness of 2013, Arsenal moved up in the world as ‘this will be the season they don’t make the top four’ was replaced by the now ubiquitous ‘they will never get a better chance to win the League.’ Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City all had new managers, while Arsenal had a settled squad coupled with their brand spanking new singing Mesut Özil. Arsenal had their best run at the title for some years but faded badly in the final third of the campaign, which brought some painfully abject defeats away at rival clubs. Chance gone, maybe.

Well no not quite, as circumstances combined to present Arsenal with an even clearer chance at the title in 2014/15. United’s plan to replace Sir Alex Ferguson with the ‘organic’ choice David Moyes was prematurely aborted and Louis Van Gaal brought it. A radical change in style and a rather stale squad indicated that he would need a lot of time to implement his ideas. Liverpool never recovered from the loss of Luis Suarez to Barcelona and Daniel Sturridge to injury. Manchester City’s title defence was mostly unconvincing, and at times outright complacent.

Only the highly effective unit of Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea appeared to stand in Arsenal’s way, who boasted a raft of new signings including Danny Welbeck and Alexis Sanchez. It took Arsenal until January to find the right tactical balance and blend of personnel however, by which time Chelsea were on their way into the sunset. Surely they ‘would never get a better chance’, especially when the two Manchester clubs spent £263m between them in the summer of 2015.

Low and behold; and you may be sensing a pattern by now, the door was not slammed in Arsenal’s face by the spending or managerial appointments of other clubs. The problems at Chelsea and Manchester United this season are well documented, along with Manchester City’s inconsistency. All of which has seen this season branded as a ‘now or never’ moment for Arsenal. Phil McNulty said as much in a recent BBC Sport column:

“Are Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea likely to be as vulnerable next season?
City may well have Bayern Munich coach Pep Guardiola in charge by then and have limitless funds to back him.
Serial winner Jose Mourinho could be in the dugout at Old Trafford with a burning desire to prove a point after his sacking, while Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich will be ready to back the next high-profile manager through the door at Chelsea with a serious transfer kitty.”

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This quote reveals some of the neophillia that pervades football analysis nowadays; the belief that a new manager or new set of players will automatically bring improvement, and perhaps more importantly, leave those teams without new players or a new manager trailing. This season more than any other, ought to serve as a warning that football is far more unpredictable and far less deterministic than that. There is no telling which circumstances might collide in the future, which is why the ‘now or never’ talk surrounding Arsenal is ridiculous. It also assumes that should Arsenal win the league they will stand still, when in fact they are far from the complete team and possess much scope for improvement.

It is true that favourable circumstances are crucial in deciding league championships; the weaknesses of others are often equally as important as the perceived excellence of the team that wins the league. Take for example, Arsenal’s Double winning team of 1997/98. A formidable side for sure, but they were helped on their way in no small part by Roy Keane’s knee ligament injury and Eric Cantona’s retirement in the summer of 1997. In the first half of Arsene Wenger’s second Double in 2001/2, he was aided by two unforced errors from Sir Alex Ferguson. Firstly, his decision to sell Japp Stam to Lazio and secondly, his decision to publically announce that he was to retire at the end of that season. A severe downturn in United’s form followed this announcement. Rio Ferdinand’s drug ban in 2004 certainly did Arsenal’s chances no harm, and they went on to win the League title without losing a game.

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Arsenal have a fantastic chance to win the Premier League this year, but whether they do so or not they will find themselves in a position of real strength come the summer of 2016. The notion that the imminent advances of rival clubs will consign Arsenal to a subjugated position is a spurious one. The way in which it was presumed that the two Manchester clubs had ‘left Arsenal behind’ because of their summer spending is evidence that the game does not work in this way. Arsenal themselves have the funds and opportunity to develop further; defensive midfield and centre forward being two positions where a player plucked from the ‘elite’ could push Arsenal onto another level. Other club’s cheque-books and the spectre of Pep Guardiola joining one of them may be a daunting prospect, but there is no apocalypse waiting around the corner for Arsenal, title or no title.

Featured Image: All rights reserved by Alex Hannam