Analysing the race for the 2016/17 Premier League Golden Boot

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The race to win the Golden Boot in the Premiership this season looks set to be a fascinating one, with several leading contenders all vying for supremacy. The furore over Chelsea forward Diego Costa, dropped for an apparent training ground row with coaching staff amid rumours of a lucrative move to China, has blown the race wide open, and in-form strikers like Harry Kane and Zlatan Ibrahimovic will fancy their chances.

A month or so ago, Costa looked to have it sewn up. He was heavy favourite, banging in goals left, right and centre as Chelsea continued their march to the title. Sportsbooks like Bookmaker have kept Chelsea as favourites to win the league, but the odds on Costa winning the Golden Boot have drifted out considerably since he missed the Leicester game. Odds of 9/2 make him a more attractive prospect, but Chelsea have acquitted themselves well without him, and he is a risky option at present.

For most neutrals, the best striker in the league is Man City’s Sergio Aguero. He spearheads an attacking side with plenty of creativity in the midfield, and he should win the Golden Boot every year, but injuries keep hampering him. This time around, suspensions have been just as bad, with his reckless hack at David Luiz costing him valuable game time. He has the potential, but is another risk, especially given City’s erratic form of late, such as the 4-0 defeat away at Everton.

Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez has matched Costa goal for goal, but he is not always playing up top for Arsenal, and will possibly have less time in a central role following the return to favour of Olivier Giroud. Romelu Lukaku and Jermain Defoe are superb strikers but they do not play for big enough teams to win this accolade.

It looks like it could come down to a straight fight between two men who were written off a month or two ago: Kane and Ibrahimovic.

Many fans and pundits were calling for Ibrahimovic to be dropped in November, when he had scored just once in 11 games. But Jose Mourinho stuck by the Swede and has reaped the rewards. Ibrahimovic went on to bang in 13 goals in 13 games, becoming the league’s deadliest striker. He has been scoring with both feet and his head from all sorts of angles and has such a fantastic instinct for where the goal is. He has caught up with Sanchez and Costa and he is the one in the best form, so it is no surprise to see him installed as 11/4 favourite to win the top scorer award, despite sportsbooks, like Bookmaker and other leading operators, having Manchester United all the way out at 22/1 to win the league.

A smarter bet could be on Kane. The Tottenham striker won the award last season as Spurs finished third in the table, and after a quiet start to 2016/17 he has quietly crept back into contention this time around. He missed a large chunk of the season through injury, so it is amazing that he is almost level with Ibrahimovic et al in the race for the Golden Boot. Since his return, Tottenham have improved exponentially and have a great chance of winning the league. Playing in a side that is winning games and creating chances should boost his chances, and Kane has by far and away the best goals per minutes ratio of anyone in the Premiership, so the 10/3 available on him winning the top goalscorer award looks excellent.

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